Findings Through Week 17, 2020
We anticipated a surge of consumer activity in the Denver Metro real estate market as the statewide ban on in-person showings expired at midnight on Sunday, April 26th. Buyers and sellers lived up to expectations as more homes hit the market and showing activity for a Monday and Tuesday was the highest seen yet this year.
Note: The weeks shown in the charts below begin on Wednesday and end on Tuesday. Week 17 was from April 22nd thru the 28th.
New listings indicate the confidence sellers have in getting the process started. The number of new listings fell sharply below historic norms in Weeks 15 and 16 but staged a strong comeback in Week 17. In-person showings were banned three weeks ago but it was announced a week ago that they could resume on April 27th. This is the likely cause of the significant decline in new listings followed by rapid recovery over the last few days.
Under Contract Listings:
Properties going under contract show us whether buyers are confident to do business in the current market environment. With fewer homes coming on the market over the last few weeks, the number of properties going under contract has declined predictably. That trend has bottomed out. We’ll learn a lot next week about buyer confidence based on whether this number rises significantly or stays close to current levels in response to the 50% increase in new listings this week.
Back on Market – By Type:
Listings come back on the market for three reasons: (1) Sellers lost a deal with one buyer and are now looking for another one; (2) Sellers took a break from showing the property and are now allowing showings again; (3) Sellers let their listings expire and then came back to the market within 30 days with either the same agent or a different agent. The spike in homes coming back on the market in Weeks 11 through 14 were largely due to Reason No. 1, while the big increase in Week 17 is due to Reason No. 2. With showing restrictions being lifted, sellers that took a break from active marketing of their homes are coming back in significant numbers.
Withdrawn listings are sellers that have either given up altogether on selling or that have temporarily halted showings. After spiking significantly, the numbers are quickly returning to normal levels.
The average price of homes closed in a given week is showing a slight downward trend. In the two prior years, average price was trending upward each week during Weeks 14 thru 17 but they show a slight downtrend over the same four weeks this year. The average home price in Week 17 this year was essentially identical with the average price last year but that was also true in Week 6. This pattern makes it hard to tell right now if the small decline over the last few weeks is an actual trend or just random variation.
Sold Price versus Original List Price:
The trend since Week 4 has been for a greater percentage of homes to sell above original list price while the percentage of homes selling below original asking price was decreasing. Right at 60% of homes in Week 17 had a sale price that was at or above original list price.
Days on Market:
Days on market is the time from when a property first comes on the market to when it goes under contract. The pattern so far in 2020 has been for days on market to be similar to or below the days on market for the three prior years. COVID-19 appears to have no effect on how long it takes to get a home under contract.
Showings Per Listing:
We’ve seen this metric decline pretty consistently since Week 10, but the pattern reversed in Week 17. Internal daily tracking data shows us that the increase this week is directly attributed to over 5000 showings that occurred on April 27th and 28th when the showing ban ended. Expect this number to continue improving in the coming weeks.