Findings Through Week 15, 2020
Supply and demand are remaining in balance as sellers and buyers reduce their market presence in equal numbers. This is keeping us in a seller’s market with homes selling quickly and prices continuing to rise. Buyers that are active in the market right now are seeing interest rates as low as 3% on a 30-year fixed rate loan.
Listings Back on Market:
Listings back on the market is a measure of strength of sellers’ desire to sell since it tracks sellers that lost a deal with one buyer but have come back on the market for another try. After spiking in Weeks 11 and 12, the numbers have now returned to what is typical of the market.
Withdrawn listings are sellers that have either given up altogether on selling or that have temporarily halted showings. Those numbers grew dramatically starting in Weeks 11 and 12 and have settled into a new norm that is three times higher than normal at 300 to 325 per week versus 100 to 125 per week.
New listings indicate seller desire to sell and the confidence they have in getting the process started. Seller attitudes made a dramatic shift for the first time in Week 15, with 50% fewer homes coming on the market than was typical in the three prior years.
The number of properties closed each month this year have been at or above last year’s numbers. Essentially all of these properties were either closed or under contract prior to any influence of the virus.
Sold Price versus Original List Price:
The trend since Week 7 has been for a greater percentage of homes to sell above original list price while homes selling below original asking price percentage was decreasing. Over 61% of homes in Week 15 had a sale price that was at or above original list price. Since the homes most recently closed were likely under contract prior to the middle of March, these numbers do not reflect any impact from Coronavirus.
Sold Above, At or Below Original List Price:
The numbers in 2020 in each category are basically consistent with prior years though Week 15.
Under Contract Listings:
Properties going under contract show us whether buyers are confident to do business in the current market environment. Buyers started backing away from purchasing starting in Week 11 and that trend accelerated in Week 15. We have 50% fewer buyers going under contract than was typical in the three prior years – similar to the 50% decline in new sellers putting their homes on the market.
This average price of properties closed each week is consistently above prices seen in the prior three years and are continuing to rise.
Days on Market:
This is the time from when a property first comes on the market to when it goes under contract. The number of days is quite low and staying at the low end of normal compared to prior years.
Showings per Listing:
We’ve seen this metric decline pretty consistently since Week 10, but it took a more pronounced downturn in Week 15. The last two weeks have seen conflicting interpretations from government sources on whether the stay at home order prohibits in-person showings and this is dramatically affecting showings. Virtual showings have become more common and are not reflected in the numbers shown here.
Showing per Listing by Price Range ... $250k to $1M:
- Showings per listing are down across all price ranges below $1,000,000 but see the information on showings required to get a contract for a more complete picture.
Showings Needed for Contract - $250k to $1M
- While showings per listing are down anywhere from 50% to 80% since Week 10 as discussed previously, the number of showings it takes to get under contract are down by 85% compared to Week 10 levels. It was taking 24 to 26 showings five weeks ago to get a contract and now it is taking only four.
Showing per Listing by Price Range ... $1M to $2M:
- Showings per listing are down across all price ranges from 1 to 2 million dollars but see the information on showings required to get a contract for a more complete picture.
Showing Need for Contract ... $1M to $2M:
- While showings need to get a contract was varying widely from week to week, it has now settled down at something under 10 days.